Page 68 - 2025 HEG Daily Energy Market Report

CARBON (€/T)
TUE WED VAR D-1 VAR W-1 AVG. MAX MIN
25/11 26/11 FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR
CO2 EUA DEC 2025 81.87 81.68 -0.19 1.02 73.89 83.93 60.94
CO2 EUA DEC 2026 84.04 83.86 -0.18 1.04 75.88 86.35 62.54
CO2 EUA DEC 2027 86.43 86.26 -0.17 1.04 78.18 89.07 64.54
CO2 EUA DEC 2028 89.13 88.98 -0.15 1.05 80.76 91.94 66.86
UK ETS DEC 25 EUR 66.29 65.86 -0.43 1.16 57.42 67.04 37.35
UK ETS DEC 26 EUR 69.29 68.85 -0.44 1.15 60.07 70.04 39.48
UK ETS DEC 27 EUR 72.47 72.04 -0.43 1.28 62.88 73.14 42.14

European carbon prices decreased on Wednesday, pressured by weekly data
revealing that investment funds had reduced their net positions for the first time
in a month. As a result, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2025 slipped by 0.2% to
81.68 EUR/tonne.

CO2 EUA

EXCHANGE RATES
TUE WED VAR D-1 VAR W-1 AVG. MAX MIN
25/11 26/11 FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR
RATE EUR/USD 1.1551 1.1577 0.0026 -0.0006 1.1261 1.1837 1.0198
RATE EUR/GBP 0.8788 0.8776 -0.0012 -0.0051 0.8551 0.8846 0.8253
RATE GBP/EUR 1.1379 1.1395 0.0016 0.0066 1.1699 1.2117 1.1305

The EUR/USD pair edged 0.2% higher at 1.1577 on Wednesday, as US data
failed to shift dovish Fed expectations. September Durable Goods Orders rose
by 0.5% (0.3% expected), with core orders up by 0.6%, while initial jobless
claims came in at 216K, below the 225K forecast. Markets still price an ~80%
chance of a 25 bps Fed cut in December, supporting Euro strength amid ECB
rate-hold expectations.

In contrast, the EUR/GBP rate eased by 0.1% to 0.8776, after the UK budget,
which raised £26 bn in taxes, was well received. Chancellor Reeves noted
£22 bn of fiscal headroom, though the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
cautioned that the manoeuvre space remains “small”.