Page 24 - 2025 HEG Daily Energy Market Report

CARBON (€/T)
WED THU VAR D-1 VAR W-1 AVG. MAX MIN
10/12 11/12 FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR
CO2 EUA DEC 2025 82.42 83.90 1.48 1.47 74.27 83.93 60.94
CO2 EUA DEC 2026 84.70 86.20 1.5 1.56 76.28 86.35 62.54
CO2 EUA DEC 2027 87.37 88.93 1.56 1.83 78.59 89.07 64.54
CO2 EUA DEC 2028 90.30 92.03 1.73 2.18 81.17 92.03 66.86
UK ETS DEC 25 EUR 63.67 64.08 0.41 -0.91 57.74 67.04 37.35
UK ETS DEC 26 EUR 66.57 66.95 0.38 -0.96 60.40 70.04 39.48
UK ETS DEC 27 EUR 69.66 70.08 0.42 -0.92 63.22 73.14 42.14

European carbon prices strengthened on Thursday with the market shifting
focus from Wednesday’s December options expiry to the outlook for medium-
term supply. A typical year-end rally is expected for EUAs. As a result, the EUAs
expiring in Dec-2025 added 1.8% to end at 83.90 EUR/tonne.

CO2 EUA

EXCHANGE RATES
WED THU VAR D-1 VAR W-1 AVG. MAX MIN
10/12 11/12 FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR
RATE EUR/USD 1.1634 1.1714 0.008 0.0048 1.1277 1.1837 1.0198
RATE EUR/GBP 0.8741 0.8751 0.001 0.0006 0.8560 0.8846 0.8253
RATE GBP/EUR 1.1440 1.1427 -0.0013 -0.0008 1.1687 1.2117 1.1305

The EUR/USD pair increased by 0.7% to 1.1714 on Thursday, following the
Fed’s 25 bps rate cut to 3.50%-3.75% and weaker-than-expected US job data.
Initial Jobless Claims rose to 236,000 for the week ending December 6, above
forecasts, while Continuing Claims fell to 1.838 million, signalling a cooling
labour market consistent with the Fed’s concerns about employment risks.

Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP rate inched up by 0.1% to 0.8751 supported by the
Euro’s negative correlation with the dollar. Attention now turns to Friday’s UK
GDP release, expected to show modest 0.1% growth in October. While a return
to expansion may be welcomed, such a small increase is unlikely to provide
significant support for the Pound.