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FX

The Euro increased versus the U.S. Dollar over the past
week as the greenback faces challenges amid rising €/£ The change in €/£/$ €/$
expectations of further Fed rate cuts in September. 0.8680 1.1720
Regarding the European Central Bank (ECB), the easing 1.1700
cycle appears to be on hold for the September meeting, 0.8660
1.1680
with markets pricing at a 94% probability of rates remaining
0.8640 1.1660
unchanged and only a 9% chance of a 25-bps cut. As a
1.1640
result, the EUR/USD rate rose by 0.4% for the week, ending 0.8620
1.1620
at 1.1697.
0.8600 1.1600
Sterling gained ground versus the European single 1.1580
0.8580
currency, driven by stronger UK data. The Euro fluctuated 1.1560
amid uncertainty surrounding the Trump–Putin meeting, 0.8560 1.1540
with initial optimism giving way later in the week to 08.08.25 11.08.25 12.08.25 13.08.25 14.08.25 15.08.25
renewed worries about Ukraine and Europe’s security
€/£ €/$
interests. As such, the EUR/GBP pair slipped by 0.5% to
0.8632.

CARBON

European carbon prices fell sharply over the week, The change in Carbon Prices
pressured by weak Eurozone macroeconomic data 80
suggesting that interest rates could remain elevated for
78
an extended period, which weighed on industrial
76
activity. Lower European gas prices also contributed to
the decline as traders reduced their exposure ahead of €/tonne 74
the Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Alaska. Despite the 72
drop, the market found solid technical support around 70
70 EUR/t, which has been a threshold for quite some 68
time now. 66
Dec25 Dec26 Dec27 Dec28
EUAs expiring in Dec-25 tumbled by 3.5% week-on-
08.08.25 15.08.25
week, closing at 70.68 EUR/tonne.

Power prices in Ireland are strongly linked to gas and Carbon prices by the volume of gas fired power stations in Ireland’s power market. Gas prices are in turn influenced by
oil prices and exchange rates.

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